1 00:00:09,460 --> 00:00:14,200 Welcome back, we will now focus on the process of decision making within the framework of 2 00:00:14,200 --> 00:00:16,430 complex infrastructures. 3 00:00:16,430 --> 00:00:20,240 So if you cannot fully understand the content of a problem, 4 00:00:20,240 --> 00:00:26,070 if you can't embrace all the complexity, and you want to solve it, 5 00:00:26,070 --> 00:00:28,840 the attention shifts to the process. 6 00:00:28,840 --> 00:00:30,509 From content to process. 7 00:00:30,509 --> 00:00:35,200 The process of interaction between the main players in this complex world. 8 00:00:35,250 --> 00:00:38,649 You start using your relations to solve a problem. 9 00:00:38,649 --> 00:00:40,890 So, from content to process. 10 00:00:40,890 --> 00:00:43,859 I will give a very simple example. 11 00:00:43,859 --> 00:00:46,789 Suppose six or seven parties depend upon each other. 12 00:00:46,789 --> 00:00:49,780 They need each other's resources to solve the problem. 13 00:00:49,780 --> 00:00:55,129 They have different opinions on both the problem analysis and the solution. 14 00:00:55,129 --> 00:00:58,370 And they are faced with many uncertainties. 15 00:00:58,370 --> 00:01:03,359 Can these parties or can one of these parties solve the problem by command and control? 16 00:01:03,359 --> 00:01:04,860 By using hierarchical power. 17 00:01:04,860 --> 00:01:08,820 No of course not, these parties are interdependent, 18 00:01:08,820 --> 00:01:11,110 so no one is in charge. 19 00:01:11,110 --> 00:01:14,990 Can these parties solve their problem by management by expertise? 20 00:01:15,780 --> 00:01:16,510 No. 21 00:01:16,620 --> 00:01:21,600 There are many uncertainties, so even experts will have to admit that they 22 00:01:21,610 --> 00:01:26,469 cannot solve the problem, or that they can solve it only partially. 23 00:01:26,469 --> 00:01:27,840 Everyone will understand: 24 00:01:27,840 --> 00:01:33,490 in such a situation parties will have to negotiate, to interact. 25 00:01:33,490 --> 00:01:36,880 If no one is in charge, there is nothing left but to sit down with 26 00:01:36,880 --> 00:01:40,909 each other and to start a process of negotiation. 27 00:01:40,909 --> 00:01:44,549 These parties are faced with uncertainties and unknowns. 28 00:01:44,549 --> 00:01:46,409 How will they deal with that? 29 00:01:46,409 --> 00:01:51,489 In the process of interaction, they will exchange information and they might learn. 30 00:01:51,760 --> 00:01:57,180 Party A might have information that reduces the uncertainties of party B. 31 00:01:57,189 --> 00:02:03,759 Or they might start a discussion on the uncertainties and reach consensus on what they think is 32 00:02:03,759 --> 00:02:07,179 the best problem analysis and the best solution. 33 00:02:07,179 --> 00:02:11,820 They might develop fallback scenarios that can be activated if the problem analysis or 34 00:02:11,820 --> 00:02:14,520 the solution proves to be wrong. 35 00:02:14,520 --> 00:02:18,250 This is called negotiated knowledge - not objective, 36 00:02:18,250 --> 00:02:20,410 but negotiated. 37 00:02:20,410 --> 00:02:24,770 If decisions are being made in a process of negotiation, 38 00:02:24,770 --> 00:02:28,800 if uncertainties are reduced in a process of negotiation, 39 00:02:28,800 --> 00:02:33,030 the question becomes interesting whether we can design such a process. 40 00:02:33,030 --> 00:02:35,440 The answer is Yes. 41 00:02:35,440 --> 00:02:40,230 A process design is a set of rules of the game that will be used by the negotiating 42 00:02:40,230 --> 00:02:46,780 parties, to reach a decision. 43 00:02:46,780 --> 00:02:49,640 What types of rules of the game are we talking about? 44 00:02:49,640 --> 00:02:50,840 Entry-rules: 45 00:02:50,840 --> 00:02:53,320 who is allowed to participate? 46 00:02:53,320 --> 00:02:54,590 Exit rules: 47 00:02:54,590 --> 00:02:58,480 under what conditions are parties allowed to leave the process? 48 00:02:58,480 --> 00:02:59,870 Agenda-rules: 49 00:02:59,870 --> 00:03:04,830 what are the issues on the agenda and might these issues change over time? 50 00:03:04,830 --> 00:03:06,560 And decision rules: 51 00:03:06,560 --> 00:03:12,200 how do parties make decisions, by consensus only or will a majority vote do? 52 00:03:12,260 --> 00:03:13,860 Institutional rules: 53 00:03:13,870 --> 00:03:18,510 who manages the process - who, for example, chairs the meetings. 54 00:03:18,510 --> 00:03:23,150 The essence of all these rules is that they should give each participant a fair chance 55 00:03:23,150 --> 00:03:28,980 to influence the decision-making - and they should give the parties the comfortable feeling 56 00:03:28,980 --> 00:03:33,370 that the process is fair, that they really have an opportunity to serve 57 00:03:33,370 --> 00:03:38,700 their own interest and to contribute to negotiated knowledge. 58 00:03:38,700 --> 00:03:41,290 So the essence of governance is twofold. 59 00:03:41,290 --> 00:03:48,290 First, acknowledge that in a complex world, no one understands or oversees al the complexity. 60 00:03:48,910 --> 00:03:54,650 Processes of DM are almost always incremental, a matter of muddling through. 61 00:03:54,650 --> 00:03:59,510 As a result of that, the structures that emerge are patchwork-like. 62 00:03:59,510 --> 00:04:01,310 Is muddling through a problem? 63 00:04:01,310 --> 00:04:08,310 No, it is inevitable - and it is conducive to learning and adaptiveness. 64 00:04:08,310 --> 00:04:12,780 Muddling through is inevitable because there are so many relations - between physical systems 65 00:04:12,790 --> 00:04:15,060 and between actors. 66 00:04:15,060 --> 00:04:22,240 The more interdependent these actors are, the more incentives they might have to work together. 67 00:04:22,250 --> 00:04:24,280 How can we stimulate them to cooperate? 68 00:04:24,280 --> 00:04:29,419 By bringing them together in a process of interaction and negotiation. 69 00:04:29,420 --> 00:04:33,460 Such a process can be designed - in such a way that it has incentives 70 00:04:33,460 --> 00:04:37,340 for the participating parties to reach consensus 71 00:04:37,340 --> 00:04:40,100 and to find negotiated knowledge. 72 00:04:40,140 --> 00:04:44,920 Now today's final question is, is such a process just a process? 73 00:04:44,930 --> 00:04:47,039 Without any substantive guidelines? 74 00:04:47,039 --> 00:04:48,569 Of course not. 75 00:04:48,569 --> 00:04:49,870 Does content matter? 76 00:04:49,870 --> 00:04:51,000 Of course it does. 77 00:04:51,000 --> 00:04:56,699 There are several mechanisms parties should be aware of in the process of interaction. 78 00:04:56,699 --> 00:05:01,340 Considers these mechanisms as a kind of checklist, that participant in the process can use, 79 00:05:01,340 --> 00:05:03,840 when making their collective decisions. 80 00:05:03,840 --> 00:05:05,159 First. 81 00:05:05,160 --> 00:05:06,460 Multiple scaling. 82 00:05:06,460 --> 00:05:10,479 Infrastructure systems are always multi-layer systems. 83 00:05:10,479 --> 00:05:13,150 You have been told about that in earlier lectures. 84 00:05:13,150 --> 00:05:19,080 An intervention at one of these layers, will always have an impact on the other layers. 85 00:05:19,080 --> 00:05:22,469 So during the process, always discuss the question what the impact 86 00:05:22,469 --> 00:05:28,100 of envisaged measures is or might be on other layers. 87 00:05:28,100 --> 00:05:32,740 Or what the interference of layers might mean for these measures. 88 00:05:32,740 --> 00:05:34,319 Second. 89 00:05:34,319 --> 00:05:38,069 Complex infra-systems are socio-technical systems. 90 00:05:38,069 --> 00:05:43,550 So always consider both the social elements (actors, rules, incentives, structures) 91 00:05:43,550 --> 00:05:46,100 as the physical elements. 92 00:05:46,100 --> 00:05:50,980 Envisaged change should always meet the criteria of both elements. 93 00:05:50,980 --> 00:05:55,500 Technical changes that do not fit the existing incentive structures, 94 00:05:55,509 --> 00:05:59,270 will probably have no or a very limited impact. 95 00:05:59,270 --> 00:06:01,670 Third: Redundancies. 96 00:06:01,670 --> 00:06:04,750 Most well functioning systems are redundant. 97 00:06:04,750 --> 00:06:09,279 Redundant infrastructures - you can take a flight from Amsterdam to Paris - but there 98 00:06:09,279 --> 00:06:12,439 is an alternative - the high speed train. 99 00:06:12,439 --> 00:06:14,659 Redundant technologies. 100 00:06:14,659 --> 00:06:18,699 What in the most future sustainable option for cars: 101 00:06:18,700 --> 00:06:24,260 electricity, biofuel or hydrogen? 102 00:06:24,270 --> 00:06:25,930 Why should we choose? 103 00:06:25,930 --> 00:06:30,499 Redundancy will create competition between these three and incentives for continuous 104 00:06:30,499 --> 00:06:33,439 innovation and may the best win. 105 00:06:33,440 --> 00:06:35,159 Redundant networks. 106 00:06:35,159 --> 00:06:38,139 Telephone calls can be facilitated by several operators, 107 00:06:38,139 --> 00:06:40,899 that sometime use different networks. 108 00:06:40,900 --> 00:06:43,740 Redundancy makes us less vulnerable. 109 00:06:43,749 --> 00:06:49,300 So redundancy has its advantages, it of course also has disadvantages. 110 00:06:49,300 --> 00:06:52,340 It can be expensive; there is the risk of over-redundancy. 111 00:06:52,340 --> 00:06:56,260 But the point here is: in your process, take into account 112 00:06:56,260 --> 00:06:59,520 the subsent of notion of redundancy. 113 00:06:59,520 --> 00:07:02,460 Fourth: Variety and selection. 114 00:07:02,460 --> 00:07:04,960 Always tolerate variety. 115 00:07:04,969 --> 00:07:10,520 A variety of types of sustainable cars, a variety of local and decentral initiatives 116 00:07:10,520 --> 00:07:15,169 to generate electricity, a variety of technologies etc. 117 00:07:15,169 --> 00:07:16,669 Five. 118 00:07:16,669 --> 00:07:19,699 Give room to the actors involved to organize themselves, 119 00:07:19,699 --> 00:07:22,889 to take initiatives, room for maneuver. 120 00:07:22,889 --> 00:07:27,999 Room is always conducive to initiatives and entrepreneurship. 121 00:07:27,999 --> 00:07:32,729 All these principles are based upon the idea that central planning does not work, 122 00:07:32,729 --> 00:07:35,849 that decision-making is often a very incremental process, 123 00:07:35,849 --> 00:07:38,409 that we cannot overseer the consequences. 124 00:07:38,409 --> 00:07:44,660 Decisions are made in a process and these principles help is to be alert - to create 125 00:07:44,669 --> 00:07:48,759 the optimal conditions for change in the right direction. 126 00:07:48,759 --> 00:07:51,659 Thank you for your attention.