1 00:00:08,000 --> 00:00:10,600 Hello, my name is Erik Pruyt. 2 00:00:10,610 --> 00:00:14,190 I'm a methodologist at Delft University of Technology. 3 00:00:14,190 --> 00:00:15,960 This week is about modeling techniques. 4 00:00:15,960 --> 00:00:17,860 In this weblecture we will look at one of these techniques, 5 00:00:17,860 --> 00:00:22,970 the System Dynamics Modeling and Simulation method; what it is used for; how it is used 6 00:00:22,970 --> 00:00:24,759 and what is specific about SD? 7 00:00:24,759 --> 00:00:27,849 We will also briefly look at two examples. 8 00:00:27,849 --> 00:00:29,680 So, what is System Dynamics? 9 00:00:29,680 --> 00:00:35,320 It is a method for modeling and simulating dynamically complex issues or systems characterized 10 00:00:35,320 --> 00:00:37,350 by feedback and accumulation effects. 11 00:00:37,350 --> 00:00:40,650 I will come back to that later. 12 00:00:40,650 --> 00:00:43,320 So, what is System Dynamics used for? 13 00:00:43,320 --> 00:00:50,320 Quantitative SD modeling is used to model systems and issues and to simulate their behavior. 14 00:00:51,280 --> 00:00:54,450 Models can then be used to experiment in a virtual laboratory. 15 00:00:54,450 --> 00:01:00,190 As such, System Dynamics models are also extremely useful for model-based policy analysis and 16 00:01:00,190 --> 00:01:01,810 for adaptive policy design. 17 00:01:01,810 --> 00:01:05,830 They can be used to identify root causes of problems, 18 00:01:05,830 --> 00:01:10,060 identify adaptive policies to solve problems at the root, 19 00:01:10,060 --> 00:01:15,550 and to test the effectiveness of policies across a wide range of assumptions. 20 00:01:15,550 --> 00:01:17,850 So, what are the application domains? 21 00:01:17,850 --> 00:01:24,750 Well, SD is used for many complex social-technical and policy problems. 22 00:01:24,750 --> 00:01:28,920 For example in health policy: Based on a SD study by KidRisk, 23 00:01:28,920 --> 00:01:33,640 the WHO was convinced that polio could be eradicated worldwide and the Gates Foundation 24 00:01:33,640 --> 00:01:38,030 decided to co-fund the eradication effort. 25 00:01:38,030 --> 00:01:42,530 System Dynamics models have influenced and driven energy policies and infrastructures 26 00:01:42,530 --> 00:01:45,530 in the US and elsewhere since the 1970s. 27 00:01:45,530 --> 00:01:50,439 The same is true for resource dynamics and management from the moment the first "Limits 28 00:01:50,439 --> 00:01:52,780 to Growth" study, commissioned by the Club of Rome, 29 00:01:52,780 --> 00:01:56,340 was published in 1972. 30 00:01:56,340 --> 00:02:01,240 In line with the follow-ups of the `Limits to Growth' and the growing believe that pollution, 31 00:02:01,240 --> 00:02:04,380 more than finite resources, poses severe limits to growth, 32 00:02:04,380 --> 00:02:09,519 the System Dynamics field also shifted towards environmental policymaking. 33 00:02:09,519 --> 00:02:14,969 For instance, the flight simulators and serious games developed by ClimateInteractive to help 34 00:02:14,969 --> 00:02:21,019 climate change policy makers understand the impact of climate change policies. 35 00:02:21,019 --> 00:02:26,239 System Dynamics has also been used since Jay Forrester's Urban Dynamics study for studying 36 00:02:26,239 --> 00:02:27,909 urban dynamics and policies. 37 00:02:27,909 --> 00:02:33,260 Recently, a System Dynamics model of the relationships among many core city systems was developed 38 00:02:33,260 --> 00:02:36,549 for the Smarter City project of the City of Portland, 39 00:02:36,549 --> 00:02:42,819 Oregon, USA to better understand urban dynamics, and to identify opportunities to become a 40 00:02:42,819 --> 00:02:44,760 smarter city. 41 00:02:44,760 --> 00:02:48,790 SD is also used for education and innovation. 42 00:02:48,790 --> 00:02:54,389 For example, a SD model of the Business Higher Education Forum has recently been used to 43 00:02:54,389 --> 00:02:59,519 study how President Obama's goal of 1 million Science, Technology, Engineering and Mathematics 44 00:02:59,519 --> 00:03:03,419 graduates could be met. 45 00:03:03,419 --> 00:03:09,879 System Dynamics is used for strategic planning and all sorts of business dynamics problems. 46 00:03:09,879 --> 00:03:15,129 Think about books like `Business Dynamics' or Strategic Management Dynamics, 47 00:03:15,129 --> 00:03:19,400 System Dynamics models are also used for integrated risk-capability assessment 48 00:03:19,400 --> 00:03:21,540 and Critical Infrastructures Protection. 49 00:03:21,540 --> 00:03:27,319 Finally, SD modeling is also used for many social-economic and public policy issues, 50 00:03:27,319 --> 00:03:29,949 such as societal ageing. 51 00:03:29,949 --> 00:03:34,010 So, how are SD models made and used? 52 00:03:34,010 --> 00:03:38,209 In other words: what does the SD process look like? 53 00:03:38,209 --> 00:03:44,689 As you can see from this picture, the SD process is very iterative. 54 00:03:44,689 --> 00:03:46,760 Problem owners and stakeholders are involved in many, 55 00:03:46,760 --> 00:03:48,489 if not all, stages of the process. 56 00:03:48,489 --> 00:03:53,729 In fact, it all starts from the mental models of problem owners and stakeholders. 57 00:03:53,729 --> 00:03:58,300 From this starting point, System dynamicists first distil conceptual models. 58 00:03:58,389 --> 00:04:02,219 These conceptual models are then turned into fully specified formal models, 59 00:04:02,219 --> 00:04:04,749 which are simulated, tested and used. 60 00:04:04,749 --> 00:04:11,329 Often the purpose is to design adaptive policies and to test their robustness. 61 00:04:11,329 --> 00:04:15,599 But in many cases, the aim is also to generate new insights and 62 00:04:15,599 --> 00:04:17,370 improved understanding of the problem.