1 00:00:09,360 --> 00:00:14,230 In this animation we will demonstrate why infrastructures have become so complex. 2 00:00:14,230 --> 00:00:19,850 We will also shortly introduce various ways and techniques to get more grip on this complexity 3 00:00:19,850 --> 00:00:23,460 and some notions what this means in terms of governance. 4 00:00:23,460 --> 00:00:26,120 There are many changes. 5 00:00:26,120 --> 00:00:29,330 First of all we witness rapid technological progress. 6 00:00:29,330 --> 00:00:34,000 When it comes to energy: wind turbines and solar panels are well known and already main 7 00:00:34,000 --> 00:00:38,710 sources for the supply of electricity in countries like Spain, Germany and Denmark, to name a 8 00:00:38,710 --> 00:00:40,000 few in Europe. 9 00:00:40,000 --> 00:00:46,300 However, we also see many other types of technological innovations in the field of renewable energy 10 00:00:46,300 --> 00:00:49,750 sources; some more, some less promising. 11 00:00:49,750 --> 00:00:55,420 Examples are wave energy harvesting, power kites for high altitude wind energy harvesting, 12 00:00:55,420 --> 00:01:00,890 electricity production through photosynthesis, and nanotechnology for energy storage. 13 00:01:00,890 --> 00:01:05,940 We also see big ideas like using the Sahara for large scale electricity production through 14 00:01:05,940 --> 00:01:09,030 concentrated solar power plants. 15 00:01:09,030 --> 00:01:14,030 To complicate matters further, technological progress in one domain typically co-evolves 16 00:01:14,030 --> 00:01:17,010 with technological innovation in other domains. 17 00:01:17,010 --> 00:01:22,400 For example, the need to reduce traffic congestion and CO2 emissions requires the large scale 18 00:01:22,400 --> 00:01:27,810 adoption of electric vehicles, or other types of clean vehicles, and the use of ICT for 19 00:01:27,810 --> 00:01:33,780 smarter usage of road capacity, for example to facilitate dynamic road pricing, automated 20 00:01:33,780 --> 00:01:39,200 modes of transport and more intelligent traffic management. 21 00:01:39,200 --> 00:01:46,200 IT infrastructure is not only crucial for the next generation of transport infrastructures. 22 00:01:47,320 --> 00:01:52,080 We can see an ever increasing penetration of IT and telecommunication infrastructures 23 00:01:52,080 --> 00:01:54,920 into all aspects of society. 24 00:01:54,920 --> 00:01:59,520 Everything becomes connected to the internet including infrastructures. 25 00:01:59,520 --> 00:02:03,400 This creates opportunities in all infrastructure sectors to use available infrastructure capacity 26 00:02:03,400 --> 00:02:08,900 smarter, and to develop tailor-made services for different user groups, even personalized services. 27 00:02:09,170 --> 00:02:13,579 At the same time, the use of ICT in all infrastructures generates heaps of data on the state of the 28 00:02:13,579 --> 00:02:16,450 infrastructure and on user behavior. 29 00:02:16,450 --> 00:02:21,520 These data can potentially be used by infrastructure operators, service providers, municipal, national 30 00:02:21,520 --> 00:02:27,500 and supranational authorities to understand and shape the evolution of infrastructure systems. 31 00:02:30,030 --> 00:02:34,760 This also shows that infrastructures become more and more interdependent. 32 00:02:34,760 --> 00:02:37,459 Transport infrastructure depends on energy: transport fuels as well as electricity. 33 00:02:37,459 --> 00:02:41,790 Electricity infrastructure depends on ICT infrastructures and vice-versa. 34 00:02:41,790 --> 00:02:48,000 This interdependency is a double edged sword: ICT enables better performance of critical 35 00:02:48,000 --> 00:02:56,000 infrastructures but also brings new risks and vulnerabilities, as ICT itself is a critical infrastructure. 36 00:02:56,300 --> 00:03:01,319 All these technological changes take place in the context of grand societal challenges 37 00:03:01,319 --> 00:03:07,129 such as an increasing world population, increasing urbanization, depleting fossil fuel and fresh 38 00:03:07,129 --> 00:03:12,599 water resources, rapidly increasing demands for personal mobility and freight transport, 39 00:03:12,599 --> 00:03:17,930 climate change, cyber security threats and fundamental privacy issues. 40 00:03:17,930 --> 00:03:22,900 These issues are increasingly complicated in view of the increasing number of players involved. 41 00:03:22,900 --> 00:03:27,250 At the dawn of infrastructure development, the situation was simple: we were dealing 42 00:03:27,250 --> 00:03:33,420 with local or regional systems, run by a single entity, whether a private or a public monopoly. 43 00:03:33,420 --> 00:03:37,500 This entity was in charge of the service provision for a specific region. 44 00:03:37,500 --> 00:03:42,209 But nowadays there are many, many more players, with diverging interests, some operating at 45 00:03:42,209 --> 00:03:46,280 the local level, others at national and supranational levels. 46 00:03:46,280 --> 00:03:51,310 Some of these players are public entities, others are semi-public or private entities. 47 00:03:51,310 --> 00:03:55,550 On the one side, mergers and acquisitions have resulted in large scale multinational 48 00:03:55,550 --> 00:03:57,300 infrastructure companies. 49 00:03:57,300 --> 00:04:01,530 On the other side, user co-operatives are emerging which have more bargaining power 50 00:04:01,530 --> 00:04:06,750 than single users on the pricing of infrastructure services, and some of which even aspire to 51 00:04:06,750 --> 00:04:10,920 seizing back control of infrastructure provision. 52 00:04:10,920 --> 00:04:16,880 New technologies are also opening the way towards bottom-up, user-driven infrastructure 53 00:04:16,880 --> 00:04:18,310 development. 54 00:04:18,310 --> 00:04:24,960 This phenomenon, known as inverse infrastructures, relies on decentralized technologies for infrastructure 55 00:04:24,960 --> 00:04:29,310 services, which are linked in local networks, at the initiative of the individual producers 56 00:04:29,310 --> 00:04:35,190 and users, in a self-organized way, and relying on decentralized control. 57 00:04:35,190 --> 00:04:39,479 The internet is often seen as an example of an inverse infrastructure. 58 00:04:39,479 --> 00:04:44,620 Other examples are local WiFi networks and microgrids for electricity services in a local 59 00:04:44,620 --> 00:04:45,690 neighborhood. 60 00:04:45,690 --> 00:04:52,690 Such developments require users to align their interests and adopt new modes of organization. 61 00:04:53,219 --> 00:04:58,180 All these actors have their own and often diverging interests. 62 00:04:58,180 --> 00:05:03,190 Governments want reliable and affordable infrastructures; private companies look for profit; some consumers 63 00:05:03,190 --> 00:05:07,990 want high quality, while others may give priority to lower prices. 64 00:05:07,990 --> 00:05:13,169 To summarize: Infrastructures systems and services for transport of people and goods, 65 00:05:13,169 --> 00:05:18,610 for energy and water provision and for information sharing and communication form the very backbone 66 00:05:18,610 --> 00:05:20,390 of our society. 67 00:05:20,390 --> 00:05:25,219 This backbone, however, is a complex system of interconnected and interdependent infrastructure 68 00:05:25,219 --> 00:05:28,760 systems, which are complex systems in themselves. 69 00:05:28,760 --> 00:05:33,240 Traditional mechanisms of top-down control have largely been abandoned, as they cannot 70 00:05:33,240 --> 00:05:35,490 work in complex systems. 71 00:05:35,490 --> 00:05:41,120 All infrastructure systems face common challenges: the scarcity of capital and natural resources 72 00:05:41,120 --> 00:05:46,370 forces us to make better use of available infrastructure capacity and to reduced negative 73 00:05:46,370 --> 00:05:49,020 impacts on the natural environment. 74 00:05:49,020 --> 00:05:54,240 Around the world, billions of people still do not have access to reliable drinking water, 75 00:05:54,240 --> 00:05:59,870 to electricity services, to all weather roads or other basic infrastructure services. 76 00:05:59,870 --> 00:06:04,680 In those parts of the world where legacy infrastructure systems are lacking, there is the potential 77 00:06:04,680 --> 00:06:10,659 to leapfrog to the latest technologies, such as in Africa, which leapfrogged towards mobile 78 00:06:10,659 --> 00:06:17,300 telecommunication and information infrastructures, skipping the copper wired fixed telephone infrastructure. 79 00:06:17,600 --> 00:06:22,180 In other parts of the world, users impose higher quality demands on legacy infrastructure 80 00:06:22,180 --> 00:06:26,789 systems and even require individualized service. 81 00:06:26,789 --> 00:06:31,120 Regardless how different the challenges for different world regions may seem at first 82 00:06:31,120 --> 00:06:36,370 sight, in all cases we will have to struggle with the complexity of infrastructure systems: 83 00:06:36,370 --> 00:06:42,400 the diversity of actors and interests involved and the diversity of potential technological solutions. 84 00:06:42,800 --> 00:06:47,399 In complex systems, the notion of optimality is useless. 85 00:06:47,399 --> 00:06:52,190 Many solutions can be adequate, and adequacy is context dependent. 86 00:06:54,100 --> 00:07:01,100 It is a daunting tor even impossible task to design and steer infrastructure innovation. 87 00:07:01,300 --> 00:07:04,779 How then do we make sure that we move into the right direction? 88 00:07:04,779 --> 00:07:10,870 Imagine: you have to make a decision about huge new investments in roads, CO2 reduction 89 00:07:10,870 --> 00:07:13,099 or a new energy network. 90 00:07:13,099 --> 00:07:14,860 How will the future look like? 91 00:07:14,860 --> 00:07:16,589 What is your time horizon? 92 00:07:16,589 --> 00:07:19,089 Which technologies are most promising? 93 00:07:19,089 --> 00:07:21,770 Will all buildings become energy neutral? 94 00:07:21,770 --> 00:07:25,860 How do you make sure that the infrastructure meets new safety standards? 95 00:07:25,860 --> 00:07:30,430 How do you ensure its affordability both in the short and in the long run? 96 00:07:30,430 --> 00:07:34,500 What do you know about future performance requirements, given demographic change and 97 00:07:34,500 --> 00:07:36,719 changing economic conditions? 98 00:07:36,719 --> 00:07:38,860 Which data do you need? 99 00:07:38,860 --> 00:07:43,419 You will probably find yourself at a roundabout with many competing options and trying to 100 00:07:43,419 --> 00:07:45,479 find a comprehensive solution. 101 00:07:45,479 --> 00:07:47,089 Which direction to take? 102 00:07:47,089 --> 00:07:51,930 What are the red and green signals? The key question here is how to understand, 103 00:07:51,930 --> 00:07:57,469 model, and perhaps most importantly, how to nudge the processes of technological change 104 00:07:57,469 --> 00:08:03,930 and systems integration into the desired direction. 105 00:08:03,930 --> 00:08:08,659 We will provide you with some modeling and simulation tools to help you in this process 106 00:08:08,659 --> 00:08:12,500 and to get to grips with the complexity of infrastructure systems. 107 00:08:12,500 --> 00:08:17,430 For example, the technique of Agent-based simulation can help you to gain insight into 108 00:08:17,430 --> 00:08:22,599 complex interaction patterns in networks of users and other stakeholders. 109 00:08:22,599 --> 00:08:27,800 You could use this to explore the outcomes of various CO2 reduction policies or different 110 00:08:27,800 --> 00:08:31,959 market designs in the evolution of electricity infrastructure. 111 00:08:31,959 --> 00:08:38,740 The availability of Big and open data makes these tools more worthwhile to consider. 112 00:08:38,740 --> 00:08:42,789 Simulation gaming is also a valuable method to gain deeper insight in the interactions 113 00:08:42,789 --> 00:08:47,430 between decision makers in the system, for example to explore path dependencies that 114 00:08:47,430 --> 00:08:51,000 may emerge from today's investment decisions. 115 00:08:51,000 --> 00:08:58,000 Exploratory modeling of different scenarios is yet another useful technique. 116 00:09:02,870 --> 00:09:06,949 If we think about the future we first have to think about the performance criteria that 117 00:09:06,949 --> 00:09:09,000 must be achieved. 118 00:09:09,000 --> 00:09:16,000 In our field we often use the 4 A's: accessibility, affordability, availability and acceptability. 119 00:09:17,529 --> 00:09:23,720 This includes issues like sustainability, resilience, robustness, low prices, or access 120 00:09:23,720 --> 00:09:26,690 to infrastructures in rural areas. 121 00:09:26,690 --> 00:09:31,800 But also concerns about terrorist attacks demonstrating the vulnerability of infrastructures 122 00:09:31,800 --> 00:09:36,779 and ethical notions such as fairness and social inclusion. 123 00:09:36,779 --> 00:09:41,149 This can be considered as a framework for decision making which, obviously, includes 124 00:09:41,149 --> 00:09:45,100 ethical and political issues and dilemmas. 125 00:09:47,200 --> 00:09:53,750 Infrastructure systems and services need to be designed, regulated, operated, and maintained. 126 00:09:53,750 --> 00:09:59,100 This has become so complicated that a conventional top down engineering design approach is no 127 00:09:59,100 --> 00:10:00,690 longer feasible. 128 00:10:00,690 --> 00:10:05,050 The design process must become what we call a co process. 129 00:10:05,050 --> 00:10:10,730 This means that systems and services are shaped simultaneously by a bottom-up process of emerging 130 00:10:10,730 --> 00:10:16,879 technological innovation and a top-down regulatory and design process. 131 00:10:16,879 --> 00:10:22,110 The ultimate goal is to have compliance-by-design; this means that technologies and mechanisms 132 00:10:22,110 --> 00:10:27,230 are being designed in such a way that actor behavior becomes naturally compliant with 133 00:10:27,230 --> 00:10:30,310 top-down rules and regulations. 134 00:10:30,310 --> 00:10:35,939 For example, the liberalization of the electricity market in Europe is an interplay between on 135 00:10:35,939 --> 00:10:41,360 the one hand a large variety of commercial companies focusing on producing, trading and 136 00:10:41,360 --> 00:10:46,689 distributing energy and which will take into consideration different technology options, 137 00:10:46,689 --> 00:10:49,579 operational algorithms and consumer choices. 138 00:10:49,579 --> 00:10:54,579 This creates new and spontaneous - often called emergent behavior. 139 00:10:54,579 --> 00:10:58,519 On the other hand there are the national governments and the European Commission that have the 140 00:10:58,519 --> 00:11:03,839 responsibility to safeguard public values, including the protection of consumer interests, 141 00:11:03,839 --> 00:11:09,120 and which have designed electricity market rules and installed regulatory bodies in such 142 00:11:09,120 --> 00:11:14,750 a way as to guarantee a level playing field for energy providers, while ensuring fair 143 00:11:14,750 --> 00:11:21,750 prices and sustainable and reliable energy services for all citizens. 144 00:11:22,129 --> 00:11:29,129 Enjoy and remember: after this course you will embrace complexity!