1 00:00:08,790 --> 00:00:12,190 Hello everyone and welcome back to the course. 2 00:00:12,190 --> 00:00:18,279 In this video we will introduce you to the basic concepts that we use in discussing the 3 00:00:18,279 --> 00:00:23,890 socio-technical complexity of infrastructure systems. 4 00:00:23,890 --> 00:00:30,140 For this purpose we have provided a glossary of important terms that we use throughout 5 00:00:30,140 --> 00:00:31,640 the course. 6 00:00:31,640 --> 00:00:38,640 Please read through it and familiarize yourself with these terms and what they mean. 7 00:00:42,740 --> 00:00:46,480 What you should first wonder about is: 8 00:00:46,480 --> 00:00:49,590 what is the definition of infrastructure, or: 9 00:00:49,590 --> 00:00:54,490 what is a useful definition of infrastructure? 10 00:00:54,490 --> 00:01:01,490 If you think about infrastructures, the first thing that probably comes to mind is a highway 11 00:01:01,780 --> 00:01:08,070 or a railroad network, or any other large scale technological system. 12 00:01:08,070 --> 00:01:15,070 Imagine cables, pipelines, roads or rail that interconnect things like people, buildings 13 00:01:15,170 --> 00:01:17,370 and cities. 14 00:01:17,370 --> 00:01:20,450 The scale of this system may be: 15 00:01:20,450 --> 00:01:26,530 Local or regional, as in the case of drinking water and sewage infrastructure. 16 00:01:26,530 --> 00:01:33,360 However, most of today's infrastructure systems cross national borders. 17 00:01:33,360 --> 00:01:38,200 They span entire continents or even the globe. 18 00:01:38,200 --> 00:01:44,659 Think of electricity infrastructures, and of course telecommunication networks and the 19 00:01:44,659 --> 00:01:49,799 internet. 20 00:01:49,799 --> 00:01:56,799 If your focus is on the physical reality, then you will appreciate infrastructures as 21 00:01:57,100 --> 00:02:00,850 truly impressive feats of engineering. 22 00:02:00,850 --> 00:02:05,229 They are the megastructures of modern times. 23 00:02:05,229 --> 00:02:10,640 Infrastructures are incredibly complex physical networks, composed of millions of links and 24 00:02:10,640 --> 00:02:12,230 nodes. 25 00:02:12,230 --> 00:02:17,810 We can also think of the technological expert knowledge that we need to design, build, maintain 26 00:02:17,810 --> 00:02:21,569 and operate these infrastructures. 27 00:02:21,569 --> 00:02:26,400 Without science and engineering knowledge, infrastructures could never have been brought 28 00:02:26,400 --> 00:02:28,389 into being. 29 00:02:28,389 --> 00:02:34,590 They physically manifest themselves in our landscape in the form of roads, railways, 30 00:02:34,590 --> 00:02:41,590 airports and seaports, overhead lines and other capital intensive hardware. 31 00:02:42,309 --> 00:02:49,309 However, the technological or physical dimension is only part of the story of infrastructure. 32 00:02:51,269 --> 00:02:57,980 A social scientist studying infrastructure will see a social system, in which millions 33 00:02:57,980 --> 00:03:00,790 of users are interconnected. 34 00:03:00,790 --> 00:03:07,790 He will also see a system that connects the producers with the users of a specific service. 35 00:03:08,449 --> 00:03:15,449 And what the social scientist sees is as relevant as what the engineering scientist sees. 36 00:03:16,459 --> 00:03:23,459 So infrastructures have a physical and a social dimension. 37 00:03:26,359 --> 00:03:33,359 And even if, for the sake of scientific analysis, we tend to separate the two dimensions, they 38 00:03:34,980 --> 00:03:38,069 cannot be separated in practice. 39 00:03:38,069 --> 00:03:44,230 For example, car owners are not likely to switch to electric vehicles if they cost much 40 00:03:44,230 --> 00:03:51,230 more than a conventional vehicle, or if there are only limited means for charging them. 41 00:03:53,189 --> 00:03:59,790 One of our challenges in this course is therefore to understand, deeply understand  infrastructures 42 00:03:59,790 --> 00:04:04,159 as socio-technical systems. 43 00:04:04,159 --> 00:04:11,159 In such systems, a complex physical network is intertwined with a complex social network. 44 00:04:13,370 --> 00:04:20,370 Each infrastructure system was brought into being to provide a specific service that we 45 00:04:20,620 --> 00:04:27,620 consider essential for our well being, for socio-economic development. 46 00:04:27,970 --> 00:04:34,330 The provision of safe drinking water and the treatment of wastewater and solid wastes are 47 00:04:34,330 --> 00:04:38,530 obviously essential for public health. 48 00:04:38,530 --> 00:04:44,430 Infrastructures for mobility of people and goods have allowed us to explore the world. 49 00:04:44,430 --> 00:04:50,440 They have expanded markets and enabled global trade. 50 00:04:50,440 --> 00:04:57,440 In modern societies everything depends on the uninterrupted supply of electricity, communication 51 00:04:57,700 --> 00:05:02,340 and information services. 52 00:05:02,340 --> 00:05:09,340 In fact, infrastructure related services are so essential, that national governments take 53 00:05:09,830 --> 00:05:16,830 responsibility for the accessibility, availability, affordability and social acceptability of 54 00:05:17,480 --> 00:05:20,350 these services. 55 00:05:20,350 --> 00:05:27,160 This may imply that the infrastructure is owned and operated by a government body. 56 00:05:27,160 --> 00:05:34,160 However, as we will see, there are alternative ways to ensure the reliability and quality 57 00:05:34,530 --> 00:05:39,540 of infrastructure related services. 58 00:05:39,540 --> 00:05:44,290 Let us take the example of the electricity infrastructure. 59 00:05:44,290 --> 00:05:51,250 The first true electricity infrastructure came online in 1882. 60 00:05:51,250 --> 00:05:58,250 It consisted of a single coal fired generator providing power to the light bulbs of 59 customers 61 00:05:59,620 --> 00:06:02,210 within a New York neighborhood. 62 00:06:02,210 --> 00:06:08,550 Soon, similar systems sprouted in major cities around the world. 63 00:06:08,550 --> 00:06:15,550 Eventually, these local neighborhood systems were expanded to link entire urban areas with 64 00:06:15,950 --> 00:06:22,850 a diversity of electrical devices and multiple generators operating simultaneously. 65 00:06:22,850 --> 00:06:29,850 Gradually, these isolated urban grids were linked to provide backup power and improve 66 00:06:30,630 --> 00:06:32,500 stability. 67 00:06:32,500 --> 00:06:39,500 They were extended to connect progressively larger and more remote power generation facilities. 68 00:06:42,400 --> 00:06:49,030 Today's electricity infrastructures link these formerly separate networks into national and 69 00:06:49,030 --> 00:06:53,010 even supra-national power systems. 70 00:06:53,010 --> 00:06:59,030 Moreover, these power systems are fed by an increasingly powerful and technologically 71 00:06:59,030 --> 00:07:06,030 diverse array of generators delivering electricity for our daily needs. 72 00:07:06,650 --> 00:07:13,650 Throughout most of the 20th century, the key tasks of electricity generation, transmission, 73 00:07:13,770 --> 00:07:20,250 distribution and supply were concentrated within a single organization per country. 74 00:07:20,250 --> 00:07:25,780 A so-called vertically integrated utility. 75 00:07:25,780 --> 00:07:30,010 In many countries this single organization was a public monopoly. 76 00:07:30,010 --> 00:07:36,420 In the case of a private monopoly, it was for certain heavily regulated by the government 77 00:07:36,420 --> 00:07:43,420 to safeguard affordability, availability, safety and other public values. 78 00:07:46,190 --> 00:07:53,190 In recent decades, however, processes of infrastructure reform have induced so-called vertical unbundling 79 00:07:55,690 --> 00:07:59,280 of the electricity value chain. 80 00:07:59,280 --> 00:08:06,280 In many countries, power generation has largely been privatized and now takes place in a competitive 81 00:08:06,639 --> 00:08:08,560 market. 82 00:08:08,560 --> 00:08:15,460 Similarly, energy wholesale and even energy retail markets have in many countries been 83 00:08:15,460 --> 00:08:17,740 opened up to competition. 84 00:08:17,740 --> 00:08:23,810 With these markets, new players have entered the scene, such as market operators, traders 85 00:08:23,810 --> 00:08:27,090 and brokers. 86 00:08:27,090 --> 00:08:34,090 In between power generation and supply to end-users is the transport over grids. 87 00:08:35,930 --> 00:08:42,930 These grids are still owned, operated and planned by monopolistic system operators. 88 00:08:43,620 --> 00:08:47,680 They are known as TSOs - transmission system operators - 89 00:08:47,680 --> 00:08:53,019 and DSOs - distribution system operators. 90 00:08:53,019 --> 00:09:00,019 Why is there no competition between electricity grids? 91 00:09:00,399 --> 00:09:05,309 This is because the grid is a natural monopoly. 92 00:09:05,309 --> 00:09:10,089 The existing infrastructure network was established over many decades 93 00:09:10,089 --> 00:09:14,790 and represents a massive capital cost. 94 00:09:14,790 --> 00:09:20,879 The cost of building a competing grid is simply too high. 95 00:09:20,879 --> 00:09:26,449 This is the case for many infrastructure networks, however... 96 00:09:26,449 --> 00:09:29,769 New technologies may change that picture. 97 00:09:29,769 --> 00:09:35,889 In the world of information and telecommunication services, for example, we have seen competing 98 00:09:35,889 --> 00:09:42,889 networks come up over the past two decades, both fixed and wireless networks. 99 00:09:43,220 --> 00:09:50,220 As you can see, the social system has become much more complex as a consequence of electricity 100 00:09:50,350 --> 00:09:51,790 infrastructure reform. 101 00:09:51,790 --> 00:09:57,329 Meanwhile, in the electricity infrastructure, new technologies are being introduced, 102 00:09:57,329 --> 00:10:02,009 for example to farm wind and solar power. 103 00:10:02,009 --> 00:10:08,269 The scale of power generation is also changing. 104 00:10:08,269 --> 00:10:14,790 Many consumers of electricity have become producers at the same time. 105 00:10:14,790 --> 00:10:19,720 Think of consumers' solar panels on their roofs or small scale units 106 00:10:19,720 --> 00:10:25,509 for the cogeneration of heat and power in households. 107 00:10:25,509 --> 00:10:31,699 Consumers have actually become prosumers of electricity. 108 00:10:31,699 --> 00:10:38,329 These technological changes can endanger the stability of the grid. 109 00:10:38,329 --> 00:10:44,490 To make sure that doesn't happen, operational practices need to be revised and 110 00:10:44,490 --> 00:10:47,769 new rules need to be implemented. 111 00:10:47,769 --> 00:10:53,740 This is just another example of how the social and the technical dimensions of the electricity 112 00:10:53,740 --> 00:11:00,420 infrastructure are closely intertwined. 113 00:11:00,420 --> 00:11:05,600 Infrastructures become even more fascinating if you realize that most of these systems 114 00:11:05,600 --> 00:11:12,600 have slowly interconnected local, regional and national systems over several decades 115 00:11:12,680 --> 00:11:15,369 or even centuries. 116 00:11:15,369 --> 00:11:22,369 That implies that they were not designed as the integrated systems that we know today. 117 00:11:24,089 --> 00:11:31,089 Rather than being designed as integrated systems, they evolved as integrated large-scale systems. 118 00:11:33,449 --> 00:11:39,309 We do, however, expect them to function as integrated systems, offering adequate service 119 00:11:39,309 --> 00:11:44,300 at all times, wherever we are. 120 00:11:44,300 --> 00:11:51,300 The reality, unfortunately, is that we cannot take the availability of these services for 121 00:11:51,430 --> 00:11:58,430 granted, as many people in developing and emerging economies know very well. 122 00:11:59,269 --> 00:12:04,879 Women and children in sub-Saharan Africa spend many hours a day to get water and to collect 123 00:12:04,879 --> 00:12:07,540 the firewood they need for cooking. 124 00:12:07,540 --> 00:12:13,929 In a city like Bangalore, India, which is the heart of India's IT industry, planned 125 00:12:13,929 --> 00:12:20,149 interruptions of drinking water and electrical power supply are common. 126 00:12:20,149 --> 00:12:25,399 The city's infrastructures simply cannot keep up with the massive influx of new citizens 127 00:12:25,399 --> 00:12:28,389 and the fast growth of the economy. 128 00:12:28,389 --> 00:12:35,389 So we are still a long way from ensuring reliable water, energy and transportation services 129 00:12:36,600 --> 00:12:38,970 for the whole world. 130 00:12:38,970 --> 00:12:45,970 And, even when advanced infrastructure is available, we are struggling to adapt our 131 00:12:46,079 --> 00:12:53,079 legacy systems to changing demands and preferences of individual users and their societies. 132 00:12:53,559 --> 00:13:00,559 Local infrastructure failure may have mundane causes such as wear and tear, or digging contractors 133 00:13:01,129 --> 00:13:05,819 that accidentally hit a pipeline or a cable. 134 00:13:05,819 --> 00:13:10,329 Even the occasional power blackout  may hit us right here, as a consequence of a failure 135 00:13:10,329 --> 00:13:16,449 somewhere far away that cascades through the continental network. 136 00:13:16,449 --> 00:13:23,449 And, to further complicate matters, failures may also originate from other infrastructure 137 00:13:23,449 --> 00:13:24,290 systems. 138 00:13:24,290 --> 00:13:29,410 Which is because today's infrastructure systems are largely interdependent. 139 00:13:29,410 --> 00:13:35,600 For example, drinking water infrastructure needs electricity to power its pumps. 140 00:13:35,600 --> 00:13:40,009 Continental electricity infrastructure needs telecom and information infrastructure. 141 00:13:40,009 --> 00:13:45,309 Because without that essential information on the state of the network cannot be shared 142 00:13:45,309 --> 00:13:50,470 between national Transmission System Operators. 143 00:13:50,470 --> 00:13:57,470 Then mobile telecommunication infrastructure critically depends on electricity. 144 00:13:57,879 --> 00:14:04,879 In other words, we are dealing with a system of interdependent infrastructure systems. 145 00:14:08,249 --> 00:14:15,249 The socio-technical complexity of modern infrastructure is unprecedented, which is one of the reasons 146 00:14:17,179 --> 00:14:22,040 why we refer to Next Generation Infrastructure. 147 00:14:22,040 --> 00:14:25,639 The need to deal with that complexity is a given. 148 00:14:25,639 --> 00:14:32,639 After all, how else are we to supply the next generation of the world population with essential 149 00:14:33,040 --> 00:14:36,600 infrastructure services? 150 00:14:36,600 --> 00:14:43,339 We will use the conceptual framework of Complex Adaptive Systems to capture the dynamics of 151 00:14:43,339 --> 00:14:46,059 infrastructure systems. 152 00:14:46,059 --> 00:14:53,059 These dynamics will become clear when looking at the operational time scales and the evolutionary 153 00:14:54,379 --> 00:14:58,399 time scales of infrastructure systems. 154 00:14:58,399 --> 00:15:03,819 Complex Adaptive Systems theory will help us understand how changes in interactions 155 00:15:03,819 --> 00:15:10,819 between decision makers give rise to unpredictable and possibly undesired behavior of the system 156 00:15:11,079 --> 00:15:14,110 as a whole. 157 00:15:14,110 --> 00:15:19,509 For that reason we will introduce complexity theory, in week 2. 158 00:15:19,509 --> 00:15:26,509 Eventually, we will show you how the development and services of infrastructures depend on 159 00:15:26,649 --> 00:15:30,920 the decisions of many different actors in the system: 160 00:15:30,920 --> 00:15:37,920 investors, owners, operators, regulators, policy makers and users; to name some of the 161 00:15:38,379 --> 00:15:41,369 most important actors. 162 00:15:41,369 --> 00:15:48,369 More importantly, we will show you how incentives and regulations shape those decisions. 163 00:15:49,819 --> 00:15:56,819 You will learn to not underestimate the power you have, as a user, with millions of other 164 00:15:57,899 --> 00:16:03,679 users, to change the pathways of infrastructure development. 165 00:16:03,679 --> 00:16:06,989 Thank you for your attention. 166 00:16:06,989 --> 00:16:12,939 The next web lecture is an animation, which will also help you to understand the complexity 167 00:16:12,939 --> 00:16:13,970 of infrastructures.