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Hello in the previous weeks,
you have learned how t o handle a variety

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of challenges for infrastructure development,
and you have seen how information and telecommunication

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technologies shape future infrastructure development.

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However,
we have not focused yet on the context of

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infrastructure development.

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The world in which we develop the next generation
of infrastructures is a world that is being

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urbanized at an unprecedented pace.

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Since 2008,
more than half of the current 7 billion world

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population is living in cities.

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By 2050,
more than two thirds of the world population

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will be urban.

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The latest UN estimates of world population
growth point out that by 2100,

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planet earth may be inhabited by 12 billion
people.

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On the basis of the current urbanization trend
it seems a safe bet that most of them will

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be living in cities.

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So what is it that makes cities so attractive?

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Has infrastructure something to do with it?

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Is it good or bad news that cities are growing,
while rural areas are being depopulated?

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And what challenges do cities pose for infrastructure
development,

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especially taking into account that the number
of extremely large cities is increasing?

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Let us have a look at the pattern of urbanization
worldwide.

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Looking at the percentage of the population
of different countries that actually lives

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in cities,
we see widely diverging figures.

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In Argentina ,
92% of the population is urban,

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and more than 35% of the population lives
in the largest city,

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Buenos Aires,
where more than 13.6 million people live.

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We see a similar pattern in Japan,
where 91% of the population is urban,

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with 32% of the population living in Tokyo,
a megacity of more than 37 million people,

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in fact,
the largest metropolitan area in the world.

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In 2012,
according to urban area population and density update by geography.

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26 urban areas in the world qualified as megacities.

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So what defines an urban area,
a city or a metropolitan area?

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According to New Geography,
an urban area is an area of continuous urban

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development within a metropolitan area.

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An urban area or an urban agglomeration is
the physical expression of a city – it is

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what you can see and touch:
a concentration of built environment – homes,

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offices,
industrial facilities,

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all types of infrastructure – which is clearly
visible in a satellite view,

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especially at night.

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It is the physical environment where large
numbers of people live and work in close proximity

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to each other.

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The economic and functional expression of
a city is the metropolitan area.

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A metropolitan area is defined as an economic
region:

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the combination of urban,
sub-urban and rural areas which together comprise

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the labor market of the region.

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In wikipedia you will see a metropolitan area defined as:

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a region consisting
of a densely populated urban core and its

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less densely populated surrounding territories,
sharing industry,

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infrastructure and housing.

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Metropolitan areas include one or more urban
areas,

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as well as satellite cities,
towns and intervening rural areas that are

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socio-economically tied to the urban core
– as typically is measured by commuting patterns.

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Hence,
a metropolitan area usually comprises multiple

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jurisdictions:
municipalities,

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counties,
districts,

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even states and nations.

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Changing social,
economic and political institutions have made

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metropolitan areas increasingly relevant as
socio-economic entities and identities.

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How come that vast countries like Australia
or Argentina are among the most urbanized

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countries in the world?

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Australia is largely empty ,
as 89% of the people huddle together in large

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urban agglomerations on its coasts.

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Why do 92% of the people in Argentina prefer
to live in cities – with 35% of its population

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concentrated in Buenos Aires?

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Apparently,
cities are an attractive habitat for the human species.

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Without going into psychological explanations,
I think it is clear that for most people,

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the opportunities that cities offer for social
interaction,

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jobs,
education,

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cultural activities and so on,
outweigh the disadvantages of living in cities.

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Indeed,
the work of Geoffrey West,

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Louis Bettencourt and others at the Santa
Fe institute,

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shows that the productivity of cities increases
with the size of the urban population.

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The larger the city,
the more innovation and wealth it produces per capita.

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But the productivity does not increase linearly
with the size of the population,

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it increases in a supralinear fashion :
doubling the size of the city systematically

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increases wealth and income with a scaling
factor of 1.15.

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In other words,
doubling the size of the city leads to more

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than double the productivity of the city,
as we see an increase of 15% in,

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for example,
wages and number of patents per capita.

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The city is an intriguing organism:
whereas biological organisms scale sublinearly

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(their metabolism grows slower as the size
of the organism increases),

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cities exhibit a opposite behaviour.

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Their metabolic rate increases supralinearly
with increasing size of the urban system.

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Looking back into history,
we see that natural infrastructure dictated

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the places where successful human settlement
occurred.

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The rivers Euphrates,
Tigris and Nile enabled civilization and with

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it,
cities,

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to emerge in Mesopotamia and Egypt,
around 6000 BC.

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Cities allow for a smart division of tasks
and hence,

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economic specialization,
which increases productivity and generates

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more wealth for all to share.

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Already then,
man interfered with manmade infrastructure

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for a variety of essential functions,
such as water storage,

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flood control and irrigation.

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Many of the techniques developed then are
still in use today.

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People’s choice to live in cities has always
been a trade-off between opportunity and risk:

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cities offered protection against enemies,
but also risk,

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for example the risk of contagious diseases.

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In the past,
many cities were situated in such a way that

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natural infrastructure posed a barrier to
invading enemy forces.

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As example,
Machu Picchu in Peru.

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As we can see today,
with more and more megacities situated in

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flood-prone coastal zones,
the location of cities is generally a trade-off

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between accessibility and safety.

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Coastal zones and river deltas offer premium
shipping and trading opportunities.

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At the same time,
they are vulnerable to flooding.

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One of the most extreme examples of such risks
is the Western part of the Netherlands,

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which is situated below sea level.

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Dike ring 14 in this area,
one of a total of 53 dike rings protecting

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the Netherlands from flooding,
protects a region where 3.5 million people

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generate approximately 65% of the Dutch GDP.

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Urbanization patterns in the world differ
widely.

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While Japan and Europe show very low urbanization
rates,

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below 1%,
the annual increase in urban population is

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above 1% in most parts of the world,
and a staggering 2.3% and 2.4% in China and

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India,
respectively.

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In Europe ,
megacities are the exception rather than the

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rule.

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Only Paris is a true megacity.

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In Germany and the Netherlands,
with 74% and 83% of the population living

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in urban agglomerations,
we see that the population is distributed

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over a large number of relatively small cities.

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In Japan and Argentina,
the urban population is much more concentrated

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in fewer,
much larger cities.

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By far the largest number of megacities is
found in Asia.

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16 of today’s 26 megacities (with a population
of over 10 million) are located in Asia.

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We see staggering population densities,
up to 30,900 people/km2 in Mumbai,

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India and 44,400 people/km2 in Dhaka,
Bangladesh.

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Looking at the patterns,
we are tempted to speculate that the growth

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of megacities is an auto-catalytic process:
as the opportunities increase supralinearly

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with the size of the city,
the city becomes a stronger magnet for people

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and talent as it grows.

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Compare the NASA satellite images of the Pearl
River Delta,

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the first one of October 1979 where you will
find Guangzhou,

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the Guangdong state capital,
as a very compact city.

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Since then,
Shenzhen started to develop,

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as the first Special Economic Zone in China
implemented by Deng Xiao Ping.

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On the NASA picture of January 2003 you can
see how much difference that made.

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The Pearl River Delta is now home to approximately
45 million people,

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and the previously disparate urban agglomerations
are now merging into a region-wide metropolis

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which is,
moreover,

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strongly interconnected with Hong Kong.

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Is the current trend towards urbanization
good or bad news for food ,

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energy and water security?

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Is it good or bad news for the environment?

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What are its needs in terms of infrastructure
development?

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How can infrastructure cater for ‘Better
city,

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better life’ – the slogan of the Shanghai
World expo 
in 2010?

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Is Infrastructure the key to the factor 8 efficiency improvement and productivity question?

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We will try to find some answers in the next
module.

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Stay with us and thank you very much.